HNRG, Hallador Energy Company

Will it survive?

• Can it pay its interest? 3.6×
  Adequate
  Operating income $61M ÷ interest expense $17M
  What this means

  Comfortable in a normal year, but below the margin of safety Graham looked for. Worth checking how stable the coverage has been across a full cycle.

• How heavy is the debt, net of cash? $131M · 2.1× operating profit
  Meaningful net debt
  Cash $10M − debt $141M
  What this means

  Netting $10M of cash and short-term investments against $141M of debt leaves $131M owed, about 2.1× a year's operating profit (2.3× on the gross debt, before the cash). Net debt is the leverage figure that matters: the cash is already set against the debt. Strategic or illiquid investments aren't counted here.

• How long is cash tied up? —
  Not enough data
  What this means

  The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.

Is it a good business?

• Return on invested capital 2%
  Below average through the cycle
  9-yr median, range -125%–33%; 20% latest = NOPAT $58M ÷ invested capital $290M
  Industry peers: median 4%
  What this means

  The rate the business earns on the money tied up in it, Buffett's north star, because over time a stock tracks the ROIC beneath it. Above ~15% sustained hints at a moat; a return below the cost of capital (~8%) erodes value as a business grows rather than building it — the test Buffett weighs most. The headline is the median of the last 9 years (it ran 20% most recently), so one peak or trough year doesn't set the verdict. Asset-light businesses (R&D expensed, little capital) read artificially high, pair this with Owner Earnings.

• Owner-earnings margin 3%
  Thin through the cycle
  7-yr median margin, range -3%–13%; latest $40M = operating cash $81M − maintenance capex $41M
  Industry peers: median 11%
  What this means

  What an owner could take out without starving the business: operating cash less the maintenance capital it must spend to hold its position — Buffett's owner earnings. That's 9% of revenue this year, a 3% median across 7 years. It chose to put $28M more into growth, so free cash flow this year was $12M — the gap is investment, not weakness. Treating stock comp as the real expense it is (less $4M of SBC) leaves $36M.

• Are earnings backed by cash? 1.94×
  Cash-backed
  Cash from ops $81M ÷ net income $42M
  What this means

  How much of reported profit showed up as operating cash. Above 1× is reassuring; well below suggests earnings lean on accruals. One year is noisy, growth and working-capital swings distort it, and this is operating cash, not free cash. Watch the multi-year trend.

How is the cash used?

• Where do the earnings go? —
  Not enough data
  What this means

  The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.

• Investing or harvesting? 1.68×
  Expanding
  Capex $69M ÷ depreciation & amortization as filed $41M
  What this means

  Descriptive, not a grade. Above ~1× means investing faster than assets wear out (growth, or, sustained for years, today's earnings carrying less depreciation than tomorrow's will). Below means spending less than it's wearing out (efficiency, or a melting asset base). The ratio won't tell you which; the filings will.

The promise and the pay packet

• Is the buyback buying ownership, or mopping up? 0.8%
  The count is rising
  Stock compensation $4M (fiscal 2025), 0.8% of revenue · no repurchases · diluted shares +29.1% since 2022
  What this means

  Stock handed to employees is a real cost paid in the owner's own currency: it is charged against profit, but the shares it creates are permanent. Many companies repurchase stock at the same time, which looks like a return of capital and often is not — if the count barely moves, the cash merely cancelled the pay packet and bought the owner nothing. The three states worth telling apart are a count genuinely shrinking, a count standing still despite large repurchases, and a count rising because the issuance was never offset at all.

Graham’s defensive tests · 1 of 5 met

Graham’s numerical criteria for the defensive investor (The Intelligent Investor, ch. 14), run on the filings. A floor of safety, not a buy signal; many fine modern businesses fail his strictest liquidity rules by design.

• Adequate size Miss
  Revenue ≥ $2B · $469M
  What this means

  Big enough to weather a storm. Graham's 1972 floor was ~$100M of sales (≈ $700M today); we use a $2B revenue line as a conservative modern stand-in.

• Strong liquidity —
  Current ratio ≥ 2× (waived for utilities) · exempt
  What this means

  Graham exempted public utilities from this test: their working capital “takes care of itself” through the continuous bond-and-share financing of growth, so a thin current ratio is the industry's structure, not a warning. His substitute test — debt no more than twice book equity — is the next line.

• Conservative debt Pass
  Debt ≤ 2× equity (Graham's utility test) · $141M vs $160M equity
  What this means

  Graham's own substitution for public utilities: debt not exceeding twice the stock equity at book value, in place of the working-capital tests an industrial faces. A utility finances its plant with bonds by design; the question is whether the borrowing stays inside the equity behind it.

• Earnings stability Miss
  A profit every year (10-yr record) · 4 loss years
  What this means

  Graham wanted earnings in each of the past ten years, the stability a defensive owner leans on.

• Dividend record Miss
  Uninterrupted dividends · 5 of 10 yrs
  What this means

  An unbroken dividend was Graham's mark of durability. He wanted twenty years; the filings show about ten, and a single suspension breaks the streak. Non-payers, many fine modern compounders, fall outside his defensive net by design.

• Earnings growth Miss
  Earnings +33% over the record · −362%
  What this means

  At least a third more earnings than a decade ago, averaging three years at each end. Net income (not per-share), so stock splits don't distort it, buybacks and dilution show up in the share-count line instead.

• Moderate price —
  P/E ≤ 15 and P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5 · decided by the price
  What this means

  Graham's valuation gate, the wall he kept between a sound business and a sound investment. Three-year average earnings are $-0.99/share (latest year $0.89), the averaged base the calculator's gate runs on, and book value is $3.39/share. Enter a price in “What the price implies” just below for the P/E, P/B, and whether it clears. But this is the rule Buffett outgrew: there's no hard P/E law, and a wonderful business can deserve a far richer multiple if the thesis holds, treat it as the bargain-hunter's floor, not a verdict on the price.

Durability & moat, 2016–2025

Whether the record’s returns held, and what the capital reinvested earned.

• Profitable years 6 of 10
  What this means

  Lost money in 4 year(s), look at what happened there before trusting the average.

• Return on capital ≥ 15% 2 of 10 yrs
  What this means

  A moat shows up as a high return on invested capital that holds year after year, not one good vintage.

• Operating margin 3% → −10% (3-yr avg ends)
  What this means

  The recent-years average (−10%) sits below the early years (3%), but the latest year (13%) is back near the early level: a cyclical trough dragging the window down, not a one-way slide. The through-cycle median is 1% — read it across the cycle, not on the dip.

• Reinvestment, incremental ROIC returns capital
  What this means

  The capital base barely grew: this business returns cash through dividends and buybacks rather than reinvesting. Judge it on the cash returned, not on compounding.

• Owner earnings growth +7%/yr
  What this means

  Owner earnings grew about 7% a year over the record.

• Worst year 2024 · −54.0% op. margin
  What this means

  Operations went underwater in 2024, understand why before trusting the good years.

• Share count +4.5%/yr
  What this means

  The share count is rising, dilution works against you on a per-share basis.

• Dividend record paid
  What this means

  Paid a dividend in 5 of the years on record.