DDOG, Datadog Inc.

Will it survive?

• Can it pay its interest? -4.0×
  Does not cover its interest
  Operating income ($44M) ÷ interest expense $11M
  What this means

  A full year of operating profit didn't cover the interest bill. This is the zombie zone: the business depends on refinancing, asset sales, or forbearance to service its debt.

• How heavy is the debt, net of cash? $582M
  Net debt against an operating loss
  Cash $401M − debt $983M
  What this means

  Netting $401M of cash and short-term investments against $983M of debt leaves $582M owed, with no operating profit this year to measure it against — understand that combination before anything else about the company. Net debt is the leverage figure that matters: the cash is already set against the debt. Strategic or illiquid investments aren't counted here.

• How long is cash tied up? 0d
  Negative, funded by others
  DSO 79 + DIO 0 − DPO 79 days
  What this means

  Days cash is tied up between paying suppliers and collecting from customers. A negative cycle is a quiet moat: suppliers and customers fund the operation (Buffett's “float”), the company grows on other people's money. (Little or no inventory, a services / asset-light model, so the inventory leg is ~0.)

Is it a good business?

• Return on invested capital -1%
  Below average through the cycle
  7-yr median, range -9%–2%; -1% latest = NOPAT ($38M) ÷ invested capital $4.3B
  Industry peers: median 7%
  What this means

  The rate the business earns on the money tied up in it, Buffett's north star, because over time a stock tracks the ROIC beneath it. Above ~15% sustained hints at a moat; a return below the cost of capital (~8%) erodes value as a business grows rather than building it — the test Buffett weighs most. The headline is the median of the last 7 years (it ran -1% most recently), so one peak or trough year doesn't set the verdict. Asset-light businesses (R&D expensed, little capital) read artificially high, pair this with Owner Earnings.

• Owner-earnings margin 23%
  High through the cycle
  9-yr median margin, range 3%–31%; latest $1.0B = operating cash $1.1B − maintenance capex $50M
  Industry peers: median 16%
  What this means

  What an owner could take out without starving the business: operating cash less the maintenance capital it must spend to hold its position — Buffett's owner earnings. That's 29% of revenue this year, a 23% median across 9 years. Treating stock comp as the real expense it is (less $751M of SBC) leaves $250M.

• Are earnings backed by cash? 9.75×
  Cash-backed
  Cash from ops $1.1B ÷ net income $108M
  What this means

  How much of reported profit showed up as operating cash. Above 1× is reassuring; well below suggests earnings lean on accruals. One year is noisy, growth and working-capital swings distort it, and this is operating cash, not free cash. Watch the multi-year trend.

How is the cash used?

• Where do the earnings go? —
  Not enough data
  What this means

  The filing data didn't include the inputs for this check.

• Investing or harvesting? 1.01×
  Maintaining
  Capex $50M ÷ depreciation $49M
  What this means

  Descriptive, not a grade. Above ~1× means investing faster than assets wear out (growth, or, sustained for years, today's earnings carrying less depreciation than tomorrow's will). Below means spending less than it's wearing out (efficiency, or a melting asset base). The ratio won't tell you which; the filings will.

The promise and the pay packet

• What does winning a customer cost? 28%
  Modest selling cost
  Selling and marketing $956M ÷ revenue $3.4B
  Retention and the customer ladder, in the filing’s words

  trailing 12-month dollar-based net retention rateabout 120%

  “As of December 31, 2025, our trailing 12-month dollar-based net retention rate was about 120%.”

  ✓ the figure is the sentence’s own characters

  Customer countapproximately 32,700

  “As of December 31, 2025, we had approximately 32,700 customers spanning organizations of a broad range of sizes and industries, compared to approximately 30,000 as of December 31, 2024.”

  Customers from $100,000approximately 4,310

  “As of December 31, 2025, we had approximately 4,310 customers with annual run-rate revenue, or ARR, of $100,000 or more, representing 90% of our ARR, up from 3,610 as of December 31, 2024, representing 88% of our ARR.”

  Customers from $1.0 millionapproximately 603

  “As of December 31, 2025, we had approximately 603 customers with annual run-rate revenue, or ARR, of $1.0 million or more, up from 462 as of December 31, 2024.”

  This metric’s precision changed between filings

  “As of December 31, 2025, our trailing 12-month dollar-based net retention rate was about 120%.”

  Last year’s filing: “As of December 31, 2024, our trailing 12-month dollar-based net retention rate was high-110%'s.”

  What this means

  Sales and marketing as a share of revenue, kept apart from administrative overhead because it answers a different question: how much a business must spend to win the next customer. A company whose product pulls customers in spends little here and keeps the difference; one that must buy its growth is running to stand still, and the spending has to keep rising for revenue to keep rising. Read it beside the growth rate, not alone.

• Is the buyback buying ownership, or mopping up? 21.9%
  The count is rising
  Stock compensation $751M (fiscal 2025), 21.9% of revenue · no repurchases · diluted shares +15.2% since 2022
  What this means

  Stock handed to employees is a real cost paid in the owner's own currency: it is charged against profit, but the shares it creates are permanent. Many companies repurchase stock at the same time, which looks like a return of capital and often is not — if the count barely moves, the cash merely cancelled the pay packet and bought the owner nothing. The three states worth telling apart are a count genuinely shrinking, a count standing still despite large repurchases, and a count rising because the issuance was never offset at all.

Graham’s defensive tests · 3 of 4 met

Graham’s numerical criteria for the defensive investor (The Intelligent Investor, ch. 14), run on the filings. A floor of safety, not a buy signal; many fine modern businesses fail his strictest liquidity rules by design.

• Adequate size Pass
  Revenue ≥ $2B · $3.4B
  What this means

  Big enough to weather a storm. Graham's 1972 floor was ~$100M of sales (≈ $700M today); we use a $2B revenue line as a conservative modern stand-in.

• Strong liquidity Pass
  Current ratio ≥ 2× · 3.38×
  What this means

  Current assets at least twice current liabilities, near-term bills covered without touching the business. Strict by design: many cash-rich modern firms run leaner and miss it, holding their cushion in longer-dated securities.

• Conservative debt Pass
  Debt ≤ working capital · $983M vs $3.8B WC
  What this means

  Graham's rule that borrowings not exceed net current assets. Capital-heavy and buyback-heavy firms routinely fail it, read it next to interest coverage, not alone.

• Earnings stability Miss
  A profit every year (9-yr record) · 6 loss years
  What this means

  Graham wanted earnings in each of the past ten years, the stability a defensive owner leans on.

• Dividend record —
  Uninterrupted dividends · no dividend line tagged in the data
  What this means

  An unbroken dividend was Graham's mark of durability. This record carries no dividends-paid line in any year — common for partnerships, whose distributions file under tags the chain doesn't read — so the criterion is withheld rather than judged on silence.

• Earnings growth —
  Earnings +33% over the record · —
  What this means

  Earnings were negative early in the record, a growth rate isn't meaningful.

• Moderate price —
  P/E ≤ 15 and P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5 · decided by the price
  What this means

  Graham's valuation gate, the wall he kept between a sound business and a sound investment. Three-year average earnings are $0.32/share (latest year $0.30), the averaged base the calculator's gate runs on, and book value is $10.56/share. Enter a price in “What the price implies” just below for the P/E, P/B, and whether it clears. But this is the rule Buffett outgrew: there's no hard P/E law, and a wonderful business can deserve a far richer multiple if the thesis holds, treat it as the bargain-hunter's floor, not a verdict on the price.

Durability & moat, 2017–2025

Whether the record’s returns held, and what the capital reinvested earned.

• Profitable years 3 of 9
  What this means

  Lost money in 6 year(s), look at what happened there before trusting the average.

• Return on capital ≥ 15% 0 of 6 yrs
  What this means

  A moat shows up as a high return on invested capital that holds year after year, not one good vintage.

• Operating margin −5% → −0% (3-yr avg ends)
  What this means

  Through the cycle the operating margin widened — about −5% early to −0% lately, median −2% — pricing power intact or improving.

• Reinvestment, incremental ROIC 0%
  What this means

  Reinvested capital came back at only a modest incremental return — near the cost of capital, where extra growth adds little per dollar. The record shows whether it is a soft stretch or a thinning moat.

• Owner earnings growth +80%/yr
  What this means

  Owner earnings grew about 80% a year over the record.

• Worst year 2018 · −5.6% op. margin
  What this means

  Operations went underwater in 2018, understand why before trusting the good years.